The 80% claim pops up all over the place, and not just in design circles. Environmental charity Ellen MacArthur Foundation uses it to link the idea of eliminating waste by getting a product’s design elements right.

The claim can also be found in scholarly articles as well (such as this one on product design and the environment from the Technical University of Denmark). It’s even used to justify legislation – the European Union’s Eco-design initiative to reduce the environmental impact of products has the figure front and centre.

There’s one problem though: none of these esteemed organisations provides a source for the claim. So where did the statistic come from? Paul Foulkes-Arellano, founder of Circuthon Consulting, which advises brands on circular innovation and sustainability, recently went looking for an answer.

He traces the idea to the UK’s Design Council Annual Review 2002. But the review doesn’t provide any data to back up its claim. As Foulkes-Arellano points out, how did the Design Council determine that 80% was due to design, while 20% was due to other factors (whatever they may be)?

It’s possible the figure was derived from a 1970s idea (also originating at the Design Council) that 80% of a product’s design determines manufacturing cost. While that may seem more reasonable, it's also dubious what that assertion is based on (back in 1993 a paper from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology questioned the validity of this statistic). Some have traced the idea back to a Ford study, others to a US National Research Council Report, though none cite sources (see this discussion among academics trying to find the ultimate origin for the statistic — and failing).

In the end, it’s impossible to find a reliable source or factual evidence that justifies the claim that 80% of a product’s environmental impact is down to the designer. After all, there are a whole range of socio-economic factors outside of the designer’s control.

For instance, the recyclability of a product designed to be recycled is dependent on whether there is appropriate recycling collection, suitable processing facilities and if there is a market for the recyclate.

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